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The United States could be on the path from a non-dominant system to civil war

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niblofiobs 發表於 2022-6-17 11:28:00 | 顯示全部樓層 |閱讀模式 打印 上一主題 下一主題
 
The United States has long prided itself on being the world's longest-running "democracy." Has always been, of course, also there is a debate: since the past has a lack of universal suffrage in the United States (of slavery and Jim Crow laws, systemic exclusion ethnic minorities to participate in the voting, etc.), then from the word "democracy" of the contemporary sense, the history of the United States until recently is a history of "democracy"?
Even if we ignore all this, a global data series called "Regime" has stripped the United States of its long-held title of "democracy." The oft-cited DATA series, funded by the CIA, quantitatively measures other countries from "fully authoritarian" to "fully democratic".
The Regime data series is one of three widely used in U.S. political science and polling research. It is maintained by the Political Instability Task Force, established and funded by the CIA.
According to a recent analysis of the "regime" data series by the Center for Systematic Peace in the United States, the United States is now a non-governing system, sometimes referred to as an "illiberal democracy" or a "hybrid regime state" (partly "democratic" and partly "authoritarian"). Quantitatively, a non-governed state sits in the middle of a numerical scale with "full dictatorship" at one end and "full democracy" at the other
"As of 2020, the United States has dropped below the threshold of democracy (+6 points) and is considered a non-governing country," the center said. It also lost its title as the world's oldest continuous' democracy '... The further degradation of the DEMOCRATIC authority of the United States will lead to an adverse regime change.
Two factors construct political turbulence model
On this 21-point scale, full dictatorships score -10 and full "democracies" +10. Interestingly, this data series shows that "full dictatorships" and "full democracies" are more stable than the non-governed regimes in between. In the long run, building "illiberal democracies" or "hybrid regimes" does not seem like a good idea, unless they evolve into more purely "democratic" or "authoritarian" regimes.
The Regime data series could have predicted an attempted riot or coup at the U.S. Capitol in early 2021. The Republican Party has made it clear that its ultimate goal is permanent one-party rule. The Republican Party has long wanted this, but its ambition is now more apparent than ever. Meanwhile, for some extreme Republicans and far-right groups, civil war has already begun.
Barbara Walters, a political scientist and former member of the Political Instability Working Group, says the group has modeled many social, political, economic and religious indicators, but two stand out.
"The task force modeled political instability," she said. We included many variables that we thought were important, like poverty, income inequality and ethnic diversity. It turns out that only two factors matter: the first and most important factor is whether a country is a non-dominant institutional state. The second factor is whether their populations begin to split into multiple ethnic, religious or racial groups, and whether those groups seek power to exclude others. Clearly, both of those factors are present in the United States."
Nearly half think civil war will break out
Although many Americans did not use Walter and the task force's quantitative methods, they came to the same or similar conclusions. A University of Maryland survey published last week by the Washington Post found that a third of Americans believe violence against the government can be justified.
A year ago, more than half of Americans thought the country was in a "cold civil war," according to a poll by Edelman, a public relations consulting firm.
A national survey conducted last year by John Zog, a leading pollster, found that 46 percent of Americans thought a civil war was likely, 43 percent said it was unlikely and 11 percent said it was uncertain.
Commenting on Zog's survey, a study by the brookings Institution, a respected think tank, said: "Since nearly half of the population thinks this conflict is possible, we need to take the situation seriously. After all, this is not the first time the country has been bitterly divided. We should not assume it will not happen and ignore ominous signs that the conflict is spiraling out of control."
"Even if we do not end up with open fighting, domestic terrorism and armed violence could rise to destabilise countries," the study says. Now is the time to take steps to defend 'democracy', solve social problems and defuse tensions."

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